NCAAF Bet Preview: 9/8

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio Bearcats

How about a little Friday Night MACtion!  I’ll start with this stat. Since 2011, Underdogs from the MAC playing a Big Ten opponent are 39-16 (71%) when the line moves away from the Big Ten team (i.e. line moving from +4 to +3)

I’ll be repeating this next week with NFL, however week 2 is truly the best time to make money.  This is because lines will move heavily based off surprising week 1 performances, however the sharp better knows that for the most part this is too small of a sample size to be drawing conclusions from.

That’s exactly the scenario we see here.  The Boilermakers, a perennial Big 10 bottom feeder, held tough with a good Louisville team for a surprisingly close loss.  While I do like the new addition in coach Jeff Brohm, I think its too early to be seeing significant dividends on that hire. Ohio has an experienced team and coach in Frank Solich, who will revel in the opportunity to beat a power 5 team.  Historically (last 5 years), Purdue has done a poor job against MAC opponents and Ohio has done a great job against Power 5 opponents, barely losing to Tennessee and beating a Kansas team outright.  I think these factors add up to make the Bearcats a great play tonight.

 

Bet: Ohio +3.5

NFL Prop Bets: 2017 Season

Chargers win AFC West (+500) – Every year a team comes out of nowhere and puts it all together for a successful season.  This year I think that’s the Chargers.  The Chargers have a young, up and coming defense and I think all these guys are going to click at the same time.  Lead by Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa, the defense was ranked top 10 by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.  I’m not sure there is a better defensive end combo in the league than Bosa and Melvin Ingram, outside of Houston. Verrett is also one of the best young cover corners in the league.

The Charger’s offense last year was injured at a historical rate, losing key lineman and wide receivers.  It did allow the spotlight to shine on young guns Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry.  I love Henry to breakout this year following in the footsteps of one of the best TE’s of all time, Antonio Gates. With Keenan Allen back I think Phillip Rivers has the weapons he needs to run the pass heavy type attack that’s going to put up big numbers.  This coupled with a lot of question marks for the Raiders, Broncos, and Chiefs makes the Chargers a great value at 5-1.

Raiders to miss the playoffs (+145) – Doesn’t it feel like everyone is marking the raiders as the next big thing a little too early?  I certainly feel that way.  On their run to the division title last year the Raiders had 7 4th quarter comebacks. There’s no chance they will be as lucky.  Outside of Khalil Mack, I think they could have one of the worst defenses in the league.  Is there one other above average player on that defense?  I also have my doubts about Jack Del Rio and whether he’s the kind of head coach to take you to back to back playoff appearances.  I’ve outlined how much I love the Chargers, but the Chiefs and Broncos are both solid teams as well.  The raiders have a tough schedule which means they’ll play both Pittsburg and New England, so at +145 I love this bet.

Panthers win NFC South (+250) – There has been a pattern to the for the Panthers the last 4 years after they broke out with Cam Newton and won the NFC South in 2013.  Good Season, Bad Season, Really Good season, Bad Season.  The Panthers have a similar team to when they went 15-1 two years ago, so I see no reason why they should be such underdogs to win the division.  They have won the division in 3 of the last 4 years (granted once was at 7-9).  They got help for Cam Newton on both the line and in the run/pass game with all-purpose superstar Christian McCaffery.  Teams who lose the superbowl typically do poorly in the following year so I’m looking for that trend to continue with the Falcons.  I just don’t think the other two teams are strong enough to put up a fight against Panthers.

Deshaun Kizer ROY (+1000) -  The best way to allow a Quarterback to develop is to give him a solid O-Line and good running game.  The Browns did that this offseason by adding some nice pieces to the O-Line around perennial All-Pro Joe Thomas.  Hue Jackson is committed to the run game and they have a nice set of backs in Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. 

They added 1,000 yd receiver Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman is poised to a little breakout this year after missing time last year to injury.  I think Brian Kelly did a disservice to Kizer last year at Notre Dame and tanked his draft stock.  I like Kizer’s skills and poise and he flashed some of his talent in the preseason.  Quarterbacks will always have an edge in the end of year awards and I like Kizer here. 

NCAAF Bet Preview: 9/1

Colorado St. Rams vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Week 1, 8:00PM EST

Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado

 

Septermber 2nd, 2016 Colorado and Colorado St. met at Sports Authority field in Denver for an absolute beat down.  Colorado wins 44-7 en route to their best season in years, a 10-4 finish atop the Pac 12 South.  Fast forward a year and we have the exact same matchup to start off the year, for the Buffaloes at least.  Colorado St. was able to wipe off the cobwebs last week against another Pac 12 school in Oregon State, drubbing them to the tune of 58-27.

 

Colorado St. returns a ton of players from last year while Colorado is only returning 3 players from last year’s top ranked defense in the Pac 12.  Colorado also lost their defensive coordinator from a year ago, so I expect a significant regression.  I love what I saw out of the Rams’ senior signal caller last week and think he could tear up this new Buffalo defense.  Colorado St. also features a great special teams unit as they recruited the #1 high school punter in the nation and probably have the best kicker in the conference in Wyatt Bryan

Bottom line is I think the 44-7 score last year puts a lot of value on the Rams, who will most definitely be looking for a revenge win.

 

Bet: Colorado St. +3.5



NCAAF Bet Preview: 8/31

Louisiana Monroe Warhawks vs. Memphis Tigers

Week 1, 9:00PM EST

Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, TN)

 

We get the college football betting season started with a Thursday tilt in Memphis, TN.  How lucky is Memphis to be able to replace one of the best coaches in program history, Justin Fuente, with a budding superstar himself, Mike Norvell.  Norvell brought his passing attack over from Arizona State, and the Sundevils haven’t been the same since.

Memphis returns much of their high octane offense from last year, captained by NFL caliber QB Riley Ferguson.  Ferguson returns most of his weapons, including last years AAC conference leader in receiving yards, Anthony Miller.  As for ULM, they were a disappointing 4-8 last year.  As they say….the good news is they return 16 players…the bad news is they return 16 players.  I do not see ULM making too many improvements this year and I think being in the Liberty Bowl will help any first game jitters for Memphis immensely.  I see this snowballing out of control for ULM as the Tigers can put points on the board in a hurry.  Backed by the home crowd and opening game adrenaline, I don’t see Ferguson and his crew letting up.

 

Bet: Memphis -25

NCAAF: 2017-18 Props

 Deandre Francois Heisman (20/1) – Francois burst onto the stage last year as a freshman on opening weekend against Ole Miss, putting up 419 yards en route to a 22 point comeback victory.  He slowed down a bit the rest of the season but still showed some electric flashes that have us drooling over these odds.

Florida State plays one the toughest schedules in the country which means voters’ eyes will consistently be on Francois.  A big game against Alabama could place him at the top of the polls immediately.

On the field, Florida St. had an awful O-Line last year and he was getting constantly chased from the pocket.  He still threw for more yards than any other freshman.  With a greatly improved O-line I expect to see Francois take a leap in his sophomore season similar to Lamar Jackson last year and become the best player in the country.

Florida SEC Champ (10/1) -  Any time you are betting against Alabama to win the SEC, it’s a tough pill to swallow.  However, I think a weak SEC East makes this a great value.  Florida is stacked at every position, and are starting highly touted freshman Felipe Franks at QB, which I think is a great sign.  Even if they lose to Michigan week 1 with a skeleton squad the value is still there, because they are a shoe in to represent the East in the SEC Championship.  Georgia and Tennessee both have big question marks.  If they are in that game, you are getting +1000 odds to beat Alabama (or another SEC west foe).

I also think Jim McElwain is the next big college football coach.  This is by far the most talent he’s had on a roster in his career and I’m looking forward to what he can do with it. He has been successful with much less.

TCU Big 12 Champs (8/1) – The Big 12 is up in the air this year and I think TCU has just as good of a chance as any other team to conference.  There are new coaches at the traditional powers Oklahoma, Texas, and Baylor which I think leaves Gary Patterson as the clear best coach in the conference.  He certainly has the most experience, which matches his roster that brings a lot of guys back from last year. 

This pick lies very much in the hands of QB Kenny “Trill” Hill.  Hill had the ultimate break out game at Texas A&M, dropping 500+ yards on South Carolina.  However, failed to live up to those expectations which ultimately resulted in his departure from A&M.  He has as much talent as any QB in the country and by all accounts has worked hard this offseason for his final chance to prove the hype long ago was worth it.  They will need to beat either Oklahoma or Oklahoma St. on the road this year to make this happen, however at 8/1 odds I love the horned frogs to finally win the Big 12. 


PattyBets Articles Intro

PattyBets will now be adding articles periodically throughout the year. We will be providing you articles that will range from betting advice to prop bets for the upcoming season. The first article will be coming later on this week and will cover our favorite college football futures bets.

Looking forward to a fun and profitable football season!

 

-PattyBets

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